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The weather and safety outlook for Friday 22 January 2021 (Lockdown Day 302)

SA isobars at mid day


There is an acronym index at the bottom of the report for those not understanding some of the weather jargon. ;)

Day 302 of lockdown

Good morning all you awesome Wild2Fly people. An awesome day before yesterday with Josh flying just over 350km as the crow flies. This is an amazing flight and the longest in SA for a few years now as far as I can recall. Have a look here at his track log!  We have tropical storm Eloise up in the NE corner of our SA map with a cold front approaching CT rom the SW – two very extreme weather systems that will impact our country weather over the next few days. For the WC though it’s the IOH, inland trough and a bit of the CF approaching us that is dictating the flying. Strong NE flows along the eastern coast still around with a chance of rain as the moisture from the IOH is carried onshore. There’s a slight chance of the inland trough activity causing some CB’s in the easter southern interior and the SE winds curling around the Peninsula again for the SW component up the west coast. From here the winds veer inland for a more westerly component and eventually the NW in the central parts. Very high clouds expected again in the interior around the 13/14k mark. Some chance of OD conditions – 15-20kts out that side. Closer to home the southern coastal with a tad more climbs in it that yesterday but still relatively stable perhaps 1500ft along the southern coastal areas. Rising towards the mountains and on the west coast it is a better day compared to yesterday with better climbs and not as strong SW wind moving in later on. The winds are all NW from 5/6k upwards with a west finish at the Tropopause around 50kts. Freezing up to 17/18k today!

CT – Looks like a super cool day with the winds backing to the west at TM top height at 5kts, a strong 1000ft inversion (or just above) and SE winds to 20kts at most. So another super sweet wind-shadow day all day long form the looks of it. The main mountains also looking better with DKP a day to go from there to PV that is not so scary strong. ;) Slightly more moderate wind Starting NW but going W to SW later today and climbs 4/5k but more in the convergence areas.

RB – It just might be too light all day but maybe later afternoon a bit more..;)

PV – A good day here with slightly less winds. The convergence setting up from bumpy peak into the valley – this move northwards to Eendekuil between 14:00 and 16:00. You could get to 8k in there… ;) Up to 15kts later on. Wind is W5-1okts but SW later to 15.

Wilderness – A light wind start with a SE trend – supposedly strong later on but I notice a steep gradient along our area of coast so probably a bit frustrating with the lighter shadow bit creeping into the Map area this afternoon. I noticed 5kts on the surface and 15kts at 500ft. Hhhmmm… Something to be had at Sedge eary – bit form the left but climbs to 500ft above maybe for a while before it gets too strong by mid day. Serps to Map is n though… ;)

Plett – Same as Wilderness with Uppies showing climbs again to just over 2k but quite easterly. Low cloud early evening it seems…

PE and PA – The IOH dominating here with NE to E winds – 20kts in a few spots. Pretty cloudy towards the east with a slight chance of rain to the east and inland.

EL – As above…

Inland – Another beautiful day out there with partly cloudy skies today. A lighter wind start but the NW to the north up to 15kts and the strongest bits to the far western parts it seems. Some CB activity in the southern eastern regions this afternoon. ;)

For Wilderness, sunrise was at 5:41 and setting at 19:41 (Day length is 14 hrs and 0 min). A light SE start picking up during the day but remaining light in the Wilderness corner. Go do something that will get you high on life today! ;) Max temperature around 23 degrees C! Enjoy the day! :)

SA rain mid day

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WC rain at 17:00


WC thermal map 14:00

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WC Cloudbase at 14:00

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climbs rate and shear ratio for WC at 14:00

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WC surface winds 14:00

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WC surface winds 17:00

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Wild2Fly weather report Acronym sheet

IOH – Indian Ocean High Pressure System
SAH – Southern Atlantic High Pressure system
LSH - Lesotho High Pressure System
B/S - Boyancy Shear ration
CB - Charlie Bravo, Aviation term for Thunderstorms
CT – Cape Town
CP – Cape Point
CATS - Clear Air Turbulence
GR - Garden Route
EL - East London
LR – Lapse Rate
LH – Lions Head
SH – Signal Hill
SLP – Sir Lowries Pass
FB – False Bay
FH - Franschoek
RB - Rondebossie
PV – Porterville
CP – CarPark
BH – Beach Hotel
WC – Western Cape
PE – Port Elizabeth
PA – Port Alfred
WWB - Wrong Way Bob
W – West
OD - Over development
Q's - Cumulous clouds
SW – South West
WSW – West South West etc

If I have missed anything let me know.


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